Projected Effects of Increasing Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide and Trace Gases on Climate1
- Karl E. Taylor and
- Michael C. MacCracken
The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, chlorofluorocarbons, and other gases capable of trapping terrestrial infrared radiation have risen markedly since preindustrial times. Theoretical and numerical analyses agree that these changes will cause a warming of the global average temperature by perhaps 1.5 to 4.5 °C during the 21st century, with actual changes dependent on rates of emissions. Evaporation and precipitation rates will also increase, but there is no consensus as to what specific changes will occur in different regions. Although many uncertainties remain, changes in temperature and soil water availability seem likely to induce changes in agricultural and natural ecological systems, with the rate, pattern, and magnitude of the changes being the most important—but still uncertain—determinants.Please view the pdf by using the Full Text (PDF) link under 'View' to the left.
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