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Book: Impact of Carbon Dioxide, Trace Gases, and Climate Change on Global Agriculture
Published by: American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America

 

This chapter in IMPACT OF CARBON DIOXIDE, TRACE GASES, AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL AGRICULTURE

  1.  p. 1-17
    ASA Special Publication 53.
    Impact of Carbon Dioxide, Trace Gases, and Climate Change on Global Agriculture

    Bruce A. Kimball (ed.)

    ISBN: 978-0-89118-319-8

     

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doi:10.2134/asaspecpub53.c1

Projected Effects of Increasing Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide and Trace Gases on Climate1

  1. Karl E. Taylor and
  2. Michael C. MacCracken
  1. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California

Abstract

The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, chlorofluorocarbons, and other gases capable of trapping terrestrial infrared radiation have risen markedly since preindustrial times. Theoretical and numerical analyses agree that these changes will cause a warming of the global average temperature by perhaps 1.5 to 4.5 °C during the 21st century, with actual changes dependent on rates of emissions. Evaporation and precipitation rates will also increase, but there is no consensus as to what specific changes will occur in different regions. Although many uncertainties remain, changes in temperature and soil water availability seem likely to induce changes in agricultural and natural ecological systems, with the rate, pattern, and magnitude of the changes being the most important—but still uncertain—determinants.

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Copyright © 1990. Copyright © 1990 by the American Society of Agronomy, Inc., Crop Science Society of America, Inc., Soil Science Society of America, Inc., 5585 Guilford Rd., Madison, WI 53711 USA