The Carbon Dioxide/Trace Gas Greenhouse Effect: Greatly Overestimated?1
Most general circulation models of the atmosphere predict that a 300 to 600 μmol CO2/mol air doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration will increase Earth's mean surface air temperature by about 4°C, and that concomitant increases in certain other trace gases will produce another 4°C warming. Because of a number of demonstrable model deficiencies, however, this conclusion should not be accepted as definitive. For one thing, many well-known processes of importance to world climate are not properly represented in the models. A number of other pertinent phenomena are not even included; and the models fail to temper their calculations in accordance with the requirements of certain large-scale empirical constraints. As a result, there is reason to believe that current climate model predictions of the strength of the CO2/trace gas greenhouse effect may be an order of magnitude too large.Please view the pdf by using the Full Text (PDF) link under 'View' to the left.
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