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Book: Impact of Carbon Dioxide, Trace Gases, and Climate Change on Global Agriculture
Published by: American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America

 

This chapter in IMPACT OF CARBON DIOXIDE, TRACE GASES, AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL AGRICULTURE

  1.  p. 19-26
    asa special publication 53.
    Impact of Carbon Dioxide, Trace Gases, and Climate Change on Global Agriculture

    Bruce A. Kimball (ed.)

    ISBN: 978-0-89118-319-8

     
    Published: 1990


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doi:10.2134/asaspecpub53.c2

The Carbon Dioxide/Trace Gas Greenhouse Effect: Greatly Overestimated?1

  1. Sherwood B. Idso
  1. U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory, Phoenix, Arizona

Abstract

Most general circulation models of the atmosphere predict that a 300 to 600 μmol CO2/mol air doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration will increase Earth's mean surface air temperature by about 4°C, and that concomitant increases in certain other trace gases will produce another 4°C warming. Because of a number of demonstrable model deficiencies, however, this conclusion should not be accepted as definitive. For one thing, many well-known processes of importance to world climate are not properly represented in the models. A number of other pertinent phenomena are not even included; and the models fail to temper their calculations in accordance with the requirements of certain large-scale empirical constraints. As a result, there is reason to believe that current climate model predictions of the strength of the CO2/trace gas greenhouse effect may be an order of magnitude too large.

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Copyright © 1990. Copyright © 1990 by the American Society of Agronomy, Inc., Crop Science Society of America, Inc., Soil Science Society of America, Inc., 5585 Guilford Rd., Madison, WI 53711 USA