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Drought Pack inputs and outputs required to calculate break-even price for expected replacement of pregnant ewes; generated by producers at Yass NSW based on value of stock, cost of feed, interest forgone, and husbandry costs.

 
Item Value
Inputs
Planning months† 5
Live weight‡, kg 50
Weight gain, kg d–1 0
Feed available: wheat
DM, % 89
Energy, MJ ME kg–1 12.5
Cost t–1, AU$ 250
Feeding out cost t–1, AU$ 250
Supplement§, % 100
Value dry ewe on 1 March, AU$ ewe–1 30.00
Value pregnant ewe on 1 July, AU$ ewe–1 30.00
Bank interest forgone
On sale¶, AU$ ewe–1 1.14
On feeding¶, AU$ ewe–1 1.78
Husbandry costs, AU$ ewe–1 2.00
Outputs
Dry ewe as-fed, kg d–1 0.62
Pregnant ewe as-fed, kg d–1 0.82
Cost of feeding#, AU$ ewe–1 46.77
Animal class: pregnant ewes
Break-even price††, AU$ ewe–1 81.69
Period of planning where the initial month was March and the last month was July.
Ewe was dry from March to June and pregnant in July; live weight was set at the same weight across all months.
§Only wheat was fed as a supplement.
Interest on money invested or borrowed = 9%.
#Total cost of feeding (cost of feed + cost of feeding out) across the planning period [March to June = $0.15 ewe–1 d–1 (0.62 × 0.25) and July = $0.21 ewe–1 d–1 (0.82 × 0.25)]: cost of feed for ewes = 4 months × 30 days × 0.62 kg d–1 × $250 (1000 kg)–1 × 89% DM 100–1 = $16.55 ewe–1 + cost of feeding out for ewes = 4 months × 30 days × 0.62 kg d–1 × $250 (1000 kg–1) = $18.60 ewe–1 + cost of feed for pregnant ewes = 1 months × 30 days × 0.82 kg/d × $250 (1000 kg)–1 × 89% DM 100–1 = $5.47 ewe–1 + cost of feeding out pregnant ewes = 1 months × 30 days × 0.82 kg d–1 × $250 (1000 kg–1) = $6.15 ewe–1 based on cost of feed and cost of feeding out.
††Break-even price = value + costs/head + interest forgone on sale + interest on feeding + cost of feeding. Note: differences between Drought Pack output and actual calculations in a spreadsheet program exist due to rounding errors.



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Inputs of the dry spell time periods (short, medium, long and “worst case”) scenarios generated by producers in the Monaro region NSW, for the FSA Pack case study in AU$.

 
Dry spell time periods
Item Short Medium Long Worst
Length of dry spell 12 weeks 24 weeks 36 weeks 44 weeks
Value of stock† $1,050 $1,050 $650 $950
Income from sale of calf‡ $390
Purchase price of stock† $900 $850 $880 $850
Value of agisted stock†§ $1,100 $1,250 $950 $1,040
Income agisted calf¶ $500
Cost of agistment# $7.50 week–1 $8.50 week–1 $8.50 week–1 $8.50 week–1
Value of stock at time of workshop was $950.
Calf was sold in Week 36.
§The higher value of agisted stock is based on better performance, i.e., higher pasture growths increased live weight gain.
The selling price of the agisted calf was considered to be greater than the calf raised at home.
#Cost of transport = $71.50 and the cost of travel and supervision of stock = $65 week–1. Feeding costs: $3.93 cattle–1 day–1 and labor costs of $105 week–1.



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Outputs from FSA Pack: total loss or gains for the feed, sell, or agist options.†

 
Time period Feed Sell Agist
weeks AU$
Short (12) –9,451 8,353 4,972
Medium (24) –22,703 10,493 6,098
Long (36) –33,115 9,837 4,148
“Worst case” (44) –31,566 11,153 1,079
Results include the value of stock at the end of the planning period.



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Outputs from FSA Pack: total loss or gains for sell or agist options if calves could be sold at AU$500 and the cost of replacement stock (i.e., calves) was high.

 
Time period Sell Agist
weeks AU$
Short (12) 1,353 4,972
Medium (24) –3,507 6,098
Long (36) 7,387 4,148
“Worst case” (44) 4,153 1,079



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Input values for ImPack analysis generated by producers at Condobolin NSW, of 3 drought management strategies: sell 10% of stock (Sell 10%); keep all stock and feed (Keep All); and sell progeny as weaners (not suckling) and feed cows (Sell Prog).

 
Inputs
Selling price
Cost of feeding
Options Destock cows, calves
in 2008
Cows Calves Weaners Feeding
period
Cow Weaner Total
cost
$/cow $/calf $/weaner weeks $/cow $/weaner (AU$)
Sell 10% yes 720 280 8 2.00 1.00 11,749
Keep All no 12 3.00 1.60 29,729
Sell Prog no 405 12 3.00 20,160



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Gross margin predictions from ImPack of drought management strategies: sell 10% of stock (Sell 10%); keep all stock and feed (Keep All); and sell progeny as weaners (not suckling) and feed cows (Sell Prog.) when compared with non-drought conditions (Base).

 
Option 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AU$
Base 146,931 146,931 146,931 146,931 146,931
Sell 10% 192,026 114,704 127,928 131,203 132,758
Keep All 146,786 117,753 146,786 145,945 146,641
Sell Prog 146,786 77,797 146,786 145,945 146,641



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Cashflow comparisons from ImPack of drought management strategies: sell 10% of stock (Sell 10%); keep all stock and feed (Keep All); and sell progeny as weaners (not suckling) and feed cows (Sell Prog.) when compared with non-drought conditions (Base).

 
Option 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AU$
Base –144,609 –28,638 34,585 99,658 167,660
Sell 10% –97,484 –10,950 33,884 83,164 136,220
Keep All –144,760 –59,294 1,333 63,922 130,024
Sell Prog –144,760 –101,048 –44,061 17,010 81,002



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Inputs for beef breeding enterprise.

 
Item Value
Maximum cow age at joining 10
Total number of cows mated 399
Calves weaned 90
Adult death rate 2
Weaner death rate 2
Other culls 5
Cows sold that failed to rear 80
Heifers first calve at 2 years
Heifers sold at 1 year
Steers sold at 1 year



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Herd structure† outputs.

 
Age
Item 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number 59 54 49 44 40 37 33 30 28 25
Approximate whole farm base year dry sheep equivalents (DSE) = 7,850 DSE.



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Selling price (AU$) of stock and total value per stock type.

 
Stock type Number Price ($ stock–1) Total ($)
Steers 176 590 103,840
Heifers 117 550 64,350
CFA† cows‡ 23 696 16,008
Cull cows‡ 20 725 14,500
Dry cows‡ 8 761 6,088
Cull for age.
Variable costs per cow $145.00.



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Whole farm income (AU$), costs, gross margin, and dry sheep equivalents (DSE) for base year.

 
Item Value
Income $204,786
Costs $57,855
Gross margin $146,931
DSE 7,850
Gross margin DSE–1 $18.72