About Us | Help Videos | Contact Us | Subscriptions
 

Abstract

 

This article in SSSAJ

  1. Vol. 52 No. 6, p. 1782-1789
     
    Received: Feb 16, 1988


    * Corresponding author(s):
 View
 Download
 Alerts
 Permissions
Request Permissions
 Share

doi:10.2136/sssaj1988.03615995005200060048x

Estimating Confidence Bands for Soil-Crop Simulation Models

  1. M. J. Shaffer 
  1. USDA-ARS, Crops Res. Lab., 1701 Center Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80526

Abstract

Abstract

A general method is described that provides confidence bands for the ouput from soil-crop simulation models. Stochastic data are generated for model inputs and model coefficients. These data reproduce the statistical characteristics of the climate, soil properties, and internal model coefficients including distributions, temporal, spacial and variable cross correlations, means, and standard deviations. Model output based on these inputs is then analyzed to produce means, standard deviations, and confidence bands. A typical application of the method is illustrated using a stochastic model for soils input data together with the nitrogen-tillage-residue management (NTRM) simulation model to generate confidence bands for soil NO3-N profiles in Houston County, MN. Results indicate that 380 to 1800+ computer runs may be required to provide confidence bands for soil NO3-N concentrations that are within 10% of the means, and that use of singular mean input data sets in a nonlinear model such as NTRM can produce deviations in the simulated results ranging from 0.7 to 101% of the mean output obtained from many runs.

Contribution from USDA-ARS, Great Plains Systems Res. Unit, Fort Collins, CO.

  Please view the pdf by using the Full Text (PDF) link under 'View' to the left.

Copyright © . Soil Science Society of America