About Us | Help Videos | Contact Us | Subscriptions
 

Abstract

  VZJ Banner

This article in VZJ

  1. Vol. 10 No. 1, p. 136-150
    unlockOPEN ACCESS
     
    Received: Sept 3, 2010


    * Corresponding author(s): lieke.vanroosmalen@flinders.edu.au
 View
 Download
 Alerts
 Permissions
Request Permissions
 Share

doi:10.2136/vzj2010.0112

Comparison of Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change Using Perturbation of Observations and Distribution-Based Scaling

  1. Lieke van Roosmalen *a,
  2. Torben O. Sonnenborgb,
  3. Karsten H. Jensena and
  4. J.H. Christensenc
  1. a Dep. of Geography and Geology, Univ. of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark (L. van Roosmalen, currently at School of the Environment, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide SA, Australia)
    b Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark
    c Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Inst., Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark

Abstract

Projected climate change effects on groundwater and stream discharges were investigated through simulations with a distributed, physically based, surface water–groundwater model. Input to the hydrological model includes precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and temperature data of the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM). The aim of this study was to determine whether the choice of bias-correction method, applied to the RCM data, affected the projected hydrological changes. One method consisted of perturbation of observed data (POD) using climate change signals derived from the RCM output, while the other consisted of distribution-based scaling (DBS) of the RCM output. Distribution-based scaling resulted in RCM control period data closely approaching the observed climate data and thereby considerably improved the simulation of recharge and stream discharges. When comparing the simulations using both methods, only small differences between the projected changes in hydrological variables for the scenario period were found. Mean annual recharge increased by 15% for the DBS method and 12% for POD, and drain flow increased by 24 and 19%, respectively, while the increases in base flow were similar (7%). For both methods, daily stream discharges up to and including the median showed little change, while increases occurred for the higher quantile values. This study showed that the choice of bias-correction method did not have a significant influence on the projected changes of mean hydrological responses in this catchment, although further analysis is necessary to determine whether extremes are affected. Furthermore, the characteristics of the hydrological system likely reduced the sensitivity of the projected changes to the choice of method.

  Please view the pdf by using the Full Text (PDF) link under 'View' to the left.

Copyright © 2011. Soil Science SocietySoil Science Society of America